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Google + Teracent – display & search convergence continues

Very exciting news today with Google buying Teracent.  Dynamic creative is a key component in making display act more like search. Way back in my first post on this blog, I talked about how the ability to optimize the creative was critical in the convergence of search and display.  This acquisition shows that someone at Google thinks I’m right (still looking for them to credit me with that idea)Teracent

This acquisition will also drive some other changes in the market:

  • Accelerated Dynamic Creative adoption – while they may be upset they weren’t bought by Google, the other dynamic creative providers should be very happy.  First, while Google is huge, it doesn’t own display, not even close (not yet, anyway). So the rest of the display world is there for the taking.  Second, Google/Teracent will push marketers to think this way – which will accrue to Tumri and Dapper.  Finally, many more marketers of all sizes will now be exposed to dynamic creative – which will generate experience, case-studies, etc.  The only negative is that Google has this annoying habit of giving things away for free – which can sometimes be hard to compete with.   But Omniture seemed to handle it just fine.
  • Publisher Acceptance of Dynamic Creative – currently, due to file size restrictions, most dynamic creative is either flat out rejected or simply can’t scale on the exchanges.  This is either done because systems for approving creative haven’t recognized this new type or because the sellers want to keep the use of advanced technologies for their direct sales force (answer is likely a little of both).  Assuming Google makes Teracent the default dynamic creative provider in the Doubleclick Ad Exchange, then this will definitely force some changes in the market.  Yahoo, particularly, will need to respond (I wonder if Tumri has been invited to visit Sunnyvale tomorrow?).  At a minimum, it should become easier to get dynamic creative approved and scaled on the exchanges.   (Side note – rejecting creative simply due to file size without regard to the technology involved has to be the most poorly thought out tactic of publishers today.  Here’s a perfect example of where a display ad can pay more, and it’s being rejected. But that’s for another day)
  • Search to Display transition – In my post on the launch of the Doubleclick AdX2.0 and how Search and Display marketers would finally go head to head, I brought out how hard it would be for experienced search marketers to get up the learning curve in display. One reason is the creative – from creation to trafficking.  Teracent solves a lot, if not all, of these problems.  Ironically, the thinking behind how Teracent handles display ads is probably easier for an experienced search marketer to understand than your average display marketer.  Teracent breaks down creatives into components – it’s no longer an art, it’s a science.  That’s exactly how search marketers think.  Qualitative judgement goes out the window.   I may need to reevaluate my decision in the Search vs. Display battle (or it’s at least a lot closer).
  • More Acquisitions – I know 50+ companies that have some foot in the display “exchange” space.  This excludes all networks and publishers, simply companies adding technology and smarts to the management of display marketing on the exchanges.  Teracent is the first of those companies to be acquired (second if you count Acerno by Akamai last year).  Google gave notice in the recent earnings call that they would be interested in companies that “have figured out better ways of sorting and working on display ads.”  So it probably has more of these on the horizon and acquisitions are always copied so expect others to follow.   The only damper here is that, of the usual acquisition suspects, Yahoo and AOL are focused on other stuff.  So expect a Microsoft announcement in the next few months with Adobe being a dark horse acquirer in the space.
  • Everyone’s a DSP – We at MediaMath invented the DSP model back in 2007, but nowadays everyone is a DSP, or is claiming to be one.  While Teracent is known for its dynamic creative product, buried within its technology is the ability to buy media dynamically.  They just focus more on the creative while others focus on media and/or data.  So Google just bought a DSP, and I guarantee they know it.

In summary, this is exciting. The behemoth of search has (again) deemed display important, has said dynamic creative is critical, and has bought one of the leaders in the space.  Pretty cool stuff.  Convergence continues.

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Google’s Campaign Insights – help for display, hurt for Dynamic Logic?

Measurement.   Better measurement is critical to display advertising being managed like search.  Google this week announced the launch of an exciting new tool that will allow display marketers to better measure their results.

The product is called Campaign Insights.  It sounds pretty slick.  Basically, they are taking information on the ads consumers have seen and matching it up, somehow,  with searches consumers with the Google Toolbar make.  Now unless it’s magic, which is entirely possible, there has to be some sort of common key to enable Google to match the ad to the search – so I guess that means the toolbar is recording the ads we’re seeing (or the ad is recording a toolbar ID of some sort).  Doesn’t scare me but I wonder what the privacy hounds are thinking about this.Campaign Insights

Regardless of how it’s done, receiving this data easily and in a timely fashion should accelerate investment in display advertising.  Numerous studies show display impacts search.  But display attribution to consumer search during a campaign is pretty ad hoc.  Analysts pore over keyword traffic in analytics reports to try to see if an increase occurred when a display campaign is launched or changed.  Despite hard work by smart people – the results of this type of analysis are rarely conclusive in either direction.  Dynamic Logic brand studies are done to show lift in awareness, but they are useless for optimization because the results come weeks after the campaign. Plus they are expensive, difficult to execute, publishers hate them, and I have to believe that people who fill out DL studies are a unique lot.

This tool should give the display marketer the ability to analyze and make quick decisions to impact the campaign now.  Suddenly a marketer may be able to justify much higher CPMs in a display buy because they can directly attribute that spend to increased searches.

Google’s continued push into Display is pretty impressive.  Display is not like search in that it cannot be dominated based purely on consumer habit.  Seriously, I’ve tried to use Bing and it’s hard to get out of the habit of going to Google.com to search.  So to rule Display, Google is providing marketers with all the tools necessary to make buying display advertising as simple, easy and effective as buying search.  The Doubleclick Exchange is one piece, Campaign Insights is another. More is down the pike.

If I were Dynamic Logic, I’d be a little worried right now.   DL’s primary value is to help advertisers prove value in display advertising investment and Campaign Insights seems to make that much easier and cheaper.  Hmm, yeah, I’ll take Campaign Insights plus a Vizu study both providing me real-time results over a DL study that I’ll get a month after the campaign.  Not much of a decision there.

I’m hoping to get a demo of Campaign Insights in the next few weeks – shout if you can give me one.

Finally, while my daughter is a dinosaur for halloween, I am going to dress up as what Google knows about us. Boo!!

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The impact of the Yahoo Microsoft Search Deal on Google, SEMs and Advertisers

Last week I talked about how the Yahoo-Microsoft deal impacted the two partners in the deal. Now let’s look at others in the space, starting with the obvious:

Google

This deal is a short term blessing for Google. While Microsoft and Yahoo focus on integrating, Google can double down and invest in innovation in display, search, and the convergence of the two. While people don’t normally think of Google and Display together, they have been investing heavily in search for years, even before the Doubleclick acquisition.

The timing of these distractions could not be better as just this month Google is expected to launch version 2.0 of the DoubleClick AdExchange. This launch comes at a time when the exchanges of the other big players are not exactly knocking the ball out of the park. Yahoo’s Right Media Exchange is starting to feel a bit stale with little new development over the last year, transparency remaining a problem, and no real gameplan for real time bidding. Microsoft’s AdECN remains dormant pending an expected Q4 relaunch with nothing particularly unique to offer besides access to MSN inventory (and even that may not be unique). Add to this the distractions of integrating the search deal and the door appears wide open for Google to take a giant step forward in the non-premium display market.

As for Display/Search convergence specifically, Google should be able to capitalize on it’s commanding share in search to invest heavily in making display and search work together. A recent whitepaper by Google is likely just one of the first of many efforts to push the market into thinking this way. But it’s more than just thinking, it’s the tools and capabilities. With AdX2 bringing experience display advertisers to GCN, the traditional search advertisers that have dominated GCN to date will need to utilize and master the tools and techniques that make display work. As just one example,search advertisers on GCN are used to evaluating performance based solely on click-based conversions. For traditional display advertisers, view based conversions are almost always the driving force in making display hit ROI goals. As Google continues to integrate Doubleclick into Google’s stacks, it would seem like a pretty obvious step to incorporate view-based conversions into Google’s Adwords conversion tracking (I’d be shocked if there wasn’t a Google engineering team working on just this right now). This tool alone will encourage search advertisers to reevaluate how display and search interact.
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Bing Deal for Yahoo and Microsoft – Yay or Nay for Display?

As everyone knows, Microsoft and Yahoo! announced a deal yesterday where Microsoft’s Bing will become the new Yahoo! search engine and Yahoo! will sell ads against those search results on its site.  How will this impact display?  There’s a lot to this deal and it’s covered deeply all over the web (just Google it, oh, the irony).  But given that both Microsoft and Yahoo are display leaders, there’s likely to be an impact on display, or, at least, display/search convergence.

Let’s review how partners’ display business might be impacted by this deal.

Yahoo

Apt - In the short term there will not be much of an impact. Unless resources get quickly moved away from APT, but I expect the opposite, if any change, given the freeing up of Yahoo Search Tech and resources.  In the long term, it would be nice to think that APT could be expanded to include search.  How powerful would one platform that accessed the largest Display property, the entire RightMedia Exchange (it will someday be absorbed into APT) and the second largest search platform (with 30% market share). Unfortunately, since the rumors are that while Yahoo sales will sell premium search for Bing, Microsoft AdCenter will still be the self-service tool, consolidation into APT seems like a long shot.  Or is it?

RMX - the Right Media advertising exchange doesn’t interact with search much right now anyway, except for inclusion in the Display Extension product.  RMX’ long term destiny is as a part of APT.  The major impact may be that Y! can allocate more technical resources to display now that search tech is shifted to Microsoft.  Maybe RMX can get some love again from Yahoo Tech.

Display Products – I talked about Yahoo’s more innovative products last week.  SmartAds, which leverages search data, could really be helped here by the increased search volume from which to collect data.  However, the integration with Bing could either take awhile (likely) or be impossible (maybe).  Additionally, as Henry Blodget says, MSFT display will likely want to leverage this data as well – which creates both strategic and implementation issues.  The Display Extension product seems to be related to SmartAds, so impact would be similar.
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Yahoo 2Q09 Earnings Call – Pushing Display Innovation on Many Fronts

Today we turn from AOL to Yahoo.  Another troubled portal at the center of this display and search convergence I’ve been talking about.  Today Yahoo released Q2 earnings – not a great story from an investor or employee perspective but very exciting for display innovation.

Here are some highlights from the call (thanks to Seeking Alpha for releasing the transcript)

  • Non-guaranteed growth – CFO Tim Morse – “Non-guaranteed display revenue continued to grow strongly which partially offset the year-over-year decline on the guaranteed side.”  Great news for convergence fans.  A big part of non-guaranteed for YHOO comes through RMX, this indicates that smart buyers are aggressively investing in the space and shifting away from the old-fashioned guaranteed buys.
  • Display Innovation - CEO Bartz talked about two exciting innovations
    • Smart Ads – which allows for behavioral and search retargeting on display (there it is again, Display and Search convergence).  Note – checking out the Smart Ads page, I really like how they’ve tried to bring out the value of display – bringing out awareness, engagement and response all together. Needs to go further, though, to really help buyers understand how to manage display (eg, post-view measurement and attribution; post-view search activity, etc)
    • My Display Ads – a pilot partnership with AdReady to allow self-service ad creation.
  • Long tail advertisers - with MyDisplayAds and deal with AT&T to sell Yahoo locally.  Between the newspaper consortium and AT&T will “have a local sales force 13,000 reps strong”.  That’s a lot of feet on the street!  Interesting that, unlike AOL, Yahoo is playing both the self-service AND the salesforce angles here – which is smarter than just hoping small businesses will buy display on their own (which I believe is a few years away).
  • APT resetAPT is now “part of the process of making buying (on Yahoo) easier”   This may be a negative for people who dreamed of APT taking over the world, but it’s more realistic and for display convergence, it’s fine, this is exactly what is needed, an easier way to buy guaranteed inventory on the largest media property on the web.
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Tim Armstrong & AOL – the lab experiment on Display/Search Convergence

Thank God for Tim Armstrong. If you believe the hypothesis that Display is converging with Search, what could be a better test than to take one of Google’s starting nine and place him in the great underutilized display asset that is AOL? Nobody can ever say that Armstrong doesn’t get search. And while it gets a ton of grief, it’s hard to say that a platform with 90% reach in the US isn’t a great asset. And to make it really interesting, Armstrong is given a company that ceded search years ago despite having the largest captive audience on the web and one which, even to this day, shows no hint that an understanding of how to sell in a granular, search-like fashion exists in its DNA (although Bidplace is starting to show promise). It goes without saying that this blog will have a lot to say about AOL now and in the future.

So here we are. This is a big week for Armstrong and AOL. The first 100 days are over, he’s starting to talk about where he wants to go, and Friday he gets in front of the whole crew to lay out his plan. Armstrong says his goal is to become the market leader in display advertising. Is a leadership position in display even possible and can AOL get there? And, if so, how?

If by leadership position he means something similar to Google’s leadership in search, this is a pipe dream. Google has 65% of total searches based on the most recent Comscore rankings. Display is a bit more fragmented. Ideally we would measure this by share of all display impressions or revenue, but that data does not exist or is at least not publicly available. AOL leads in terms of Monthly Unique Visitors with ~175 million in May 2009 but Yahoo is right behind with 169MM and Google with 163MM. Another way to lead search is to take over the ad server market, but that is also pretty fragmented with Google’s Dart leading but not far ahead of Atlas and OpenAdstream (and AOL’s Adtech in 4th about 1/3 the size of AOL). Finally, the structure of the industry with several leaders competing, all having their own exclusive owned & operated inventory, and consumers having very disaggregated browsing habits makes a truly dominant position hard to imagine.

If it is apparent that a Google-like domination of display is not possible, what would “the leader in display” look like? While the same market share may not be possible, a real leader would actually have many of the same qualities as Google does in search:

  1. Most revenue – It would be hard to call yourself the leader if you did not have the most revenue in the space.
  2. First option for buyers – buyers have to think of you first when they think of buying display advertising.
  3. Technological leader – the leader has to have the best and most advanced technology.
  4. Innovation – the leader needs to be continually pushing the envelope and constantly evaluating and copying or absorbing promisting externally developed technologies.
  5. Copycats – the leader needs a track record of competitors copying what it does and continually trying to catch up (think Microsoft and Google)

It’s safe to say that AOL is considerably behind in all of these qualities. Read the rest of this entry »

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